Geopolitical instability has long been a feature of the global economy. Periods of conflict, political tension, and shifts in state behaviour have shaped the operating environment for multinational organisations. For the most part, however, these threats have been treated as episodic: event-driven, geographically contained, and often external to core business strategy. Their effects, while sometimes severe, were typically limited to defined regions or timeframes.
In recent years, that position has shifted. Geopolitical risk is no longer defined by isolated events but exerts a persistent influence on how organisations operate. It increasingly shapes decisions on where to invest, how supply chains are configured, and how workforces are deployed. In doing so, it challenges the fundamental assumptions of stability, access, and continuity on which global business models are built.
This report traces the outline of a threat that spans physical damage, supply chain disruption, cybersecurity, and credit and liquidity exposures. It also considers the implications of geopolitical risk for people – including both employees on the ground, and those with the formidable task of guiding their organisation through these increasingly unpredictable times. In doing so, it aims to help organisations better understand how geopolitical risk manifests across their operations, and how its effects can be managed in practice.